Opec monthly oil market report
Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries Monthly Oil Market Report January 2012 Feature Article: Impact of the Euro-zone debt crisis on the oil market.Starting immediately, Indian GDP will be measured by using gross value added (GVA) at market prices, rather than factor costs.Within the components, commercial crude inventories saw a build of 31.3 mb, while product stocks abated this build declining by 25.1 mb.US crude gains have been curbed by rising crude oil inventories in the United States, to stand at a record- high of 444 mb at the end of February, according to government data.The US dollar gained 2.2% compared to the euro, but was about flat compared to the yen. It fell 1.2% versus the pound sterling, but lost only 0.6% compared to the Swiss franc.The total traded volume in Nymex WTI was up sharply at 20.26 million contracts, while ICE Brent was down at 17.05 million lots.
US stockpiles of crude increased sharply over the month to 444mb, the Energy Information Administration said, reflecting the greatest amount shown by government weekly data since it has been collected starting in 1982, and up 51.7 mb since early January.Stronger growth of total business activity was supported by faster increases in output across both the manufacturing and services sectors in February.Diesel demand potential appeared despite slower industrial production in the country as an increase in consumption was linked to drought conditions, prompting additional demand from power generators and other sources.Speculators were not as bullish on the US crude oil market, where they reduced their net length by 14,116 lots over the month.The inter-month spread must be large to cover the foreseen increase in storage costs.Despite the bearish sentiment seen in the tanker market during February, freight rates remain at healthy levels, showing increases on an annual basis for all selected classes and routes.The latest information for January shows that total OECD commercial oil stocks fell by 5.0 mb for the second consecutive month.The ORB rebounded in February by its largest percentage rise since December 2008, reflecting gains in the major benchmarks as prompt demand improved in European and Asian markets amid healthy refining economics, although oversupply worries continued to overwhelm oil markets.
The GDP growth forecast for 2015 remains unchanged at 2.9%, given the latest signals from output and based on lead indicators that suggest that the depth of the recovery in the current year remains, to some extent, uncertain.While on the manufacturing side, the index indicated a marginal deceleration, staying slightly below the neutral level of 50.Gasoil stocks also fell by 3.1%, driven mainly by lower output and higher exports.
A decline in non-OPEC supply as well as OPEC crude oil production in February curtailed global oil output.Russia and Brazil remain in contraction territory, while China is only slightly above the growth level of 50.The South Korean economy continues to grow at a solid pace, despite a slight deceleration as the economy is impacted by the economic performance of its most important trading partners in the Asian region.
The growth forecast of 2015 remains unchanged at 3.4%, with some downside risk to this forecast in the coming months if the current slow-down continues.Industry and construction was the fastest growing sector by 7.1% y-o-y in the same period.The middle distillate market continued to be relatively supported by higher demand from several countries in the region, including the Philippines, Sri Lanka and Vietnam.In other words, the new formula takes into account market prices paid by consumers.The combination of the economic recovery and the additional funding of the ECB have not only led to improving business sentiment, but also to higher consumer confidence.Freight rates for tankers operating on the Middle East-to-East route declined by 13% to average WS60 points.OECD commercial oil stocks fell in January by 5.0 mb to stand at 2,695 mb.Speculation that ongoing low prices have started to affect high-cost production areas, also supported prices.Withdrawals from inventories in the US have been in line with expectations over the month, in spite of colder-than-normal temperatures, while in Europe inventories declined to 35.9% of capacity at the end of February, versus 48.75% the previous year, however average import prices have fallen on the lagging effect of crude oil price declines.
Total residual fuel oil stocks fell by 0.6 mb in January to stand at 14.6 mb, which is 0.3 mb or 1.9% below a year ago and 1.0 mb or 6.3% lower than the latest five-year average.The manufacturing PMI of February posted 49.7, up from 47.6 in January.Data for the first two months of this year pointed to a drop in crude production.Money managers decreased their net short positions to 8,479 from 10,490 lots the previous month.The Egyptian pound lost 4.8% m-o-m of its value against the US dollar last month, the sharpest depreciation since January 2013.
OPEC expects sharper decline in rivals’ oil productionSaudi Arabia was also the top crude supplier to Japan the previous month, holding a stable share of 30% of total crude exports to the country.
Credit supply from financial intermediaries has shown a positive trend since the end of 2013 and while the transmission channels still seem to be somewhat impaired, loan growth turned positive in January for the first time in almost two years, growing by 0.3% y-o-y.The rebound came as food price growth accelerated from a 65-month low in January, due to warmer than average climatic conditions.The current weakness in domestic demand led to a decline in retail trade of 2% y-o-y in January.The gasoil crack spread was supported by tightening stocks, which reacted to heavy maintenance and some operational issues in several refineries, causing a sharp drop in middle distillate inventories.
The more bullish sentiment was fuelled by the heavy maintenance season and some outages in the US, at a time when colder weather boosted demand for heating fuels.Lead indicators point at an ongoing solid momentum, while the 4Q14 GDP number has underscored a somewhat softening dynamic of the strong growth momentum that became apparent in 1H14.Meanwhile, this firmer demand coincided with tighter supply in the Atlantic Basin.The 2015 outlook is currently balanced in terms of potential and risks.New export orders, however, slid at their sharpest pace since October 2014.Similarly, rates reported for tankers trading on the West Africa-to-East route declined by 13% to average WS58 points, while freight rates registered for tankers trading on the Middle East-to- West route saw smaller drops, declining by 8% to average WS36 points.Within products, the picture was mixed, with the main stock draw coming from distillates, while unfinished products saw the highest build.However, some recent weaker-than-expected indicators in the US need to be carefully monitored in coming months.
Both East and West of Suez clean spot freight rates decline by 3% and 2% in September due to tonnage oversupply, lower tonnage requirements and limited arbitrage.The ECB will purchase private and public sector bonds of a monthly magnitude of 60 billion euros.Crude fell by 8.9 mb, while product inventories abated this drop with an increase of 1.3 mb.Growth in 2014 is expected after a significant decline was seen in 2013, due mainly to political, technical and weather-related factors.These outages limited supply and opened arbitrage from Asia to the USWC.
OPEC monthly outlook, September - Business Insider
However, this came after two consecutive strong quarters, so this should not have come as a surprise.The acceleration in production and investment would require additional financing.